Sunday, March 25, 2012

Where is global demand going to come from?

The US is likely to move closer to trend at 2.5% growth.Good but not exciting. EU is still a problem with a recession, but it is unclear how severe it will be. The Euro-zone PMI is below 50 at 48.7, France is at 49 and Germany has declined but is at 51.4. 

China is expected to grow closer to 7.5%, the official target by the government. Emerging markets in Asia are expected to slow with China. BHP, the mining company, is expected to see flat growth of iron ore to China. Commodity export countries are also expected to decline from slower demand from China. Emerging market equity markets are pricing in a slowdown. This is a not a global recession but a slow growth environment. Growth will have to come at the expense of other countries.

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