Sunday, November 27, 2011

Greece failure - happy holidays?

There is in my opinion a very high probability that within weeks, or months at most, Greece will be forced to freeze bank deposits as a prelude to leaving the euro.  Mexico in 1994 and Argentina in 2001 chose the Christmas/New Year holiday season to announce their devaluations.  Will Greece follow suit?  

“If history repeats itself,” footballer Andrew Demetriou once pointed out, “I should think we can expect the same thing again.” 

from Michael Pettis Will Greece unravel by Christmas?

It seems likely there will have to be more action taken and the holidays would be a perfect period to get the action and word out without a major market malfunction. A break-up is a possible and it is the logistics which may be the hold-up.

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