Wednesday, September 14, 2011

You cannot get a recovery without income

The median income levels for households have fallen for the third straight year to under $50,000.  This is 7% below the 1999 levels. It is going to be hard to reach trend growth if inflation adjusted income levels are falling. There have been gains in other parts of the world which is one of the reasons for the success of emerging markets, but the backsliding in the US will be a significant constraint. The decline in retail sales is just the result of declining incomes.

Aggregate demand in the US is not going to save equity values. 

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