Sunday, April 17, 2011

G20 meeting - not much new here


... the United States hopes to advance a set of proposed standards for judging the risks that individual nations pose to the global economy. Those standards could be used by the end of the year to put a spotlight on China for suppressing its currency to keep its exports cheap. from NYTimes

A contrast in style and substance. Earlier this week we had the BRICS meeting that worked on reciprocal trade and finance discussions to advance their economic growth. Now we have the G20, the replacement for the G7 trying to do the same thing. There is a huge difference with the US pushing form exports through a yuan appreciation and a discussion of trade imbalances. China, on the other hand, is using its power as a buyer and a financier to advance their own growth through locking in raw material imports. The ascent of China is in sharp contrast to the rearguard action of the US as a continued serial debtor.

The G20 agreed to have the IMF look at national levels of debt, budget deficits and trade balances to determine if these global economies are putting global economy at risk. The IMF will look at the US, China, France, Britain, Germany, Japan and India. The G20 has agreed on a set of "indicative guidelines" to "avoid disorderly movements and persistent exchange rate misalignments". They will also have "a strengthened coordination to avoid disorderly movements and persistent exchange rates misalignments" whatever that means. The statistical analysis of the IMF will not have any surprises. We know where the imbalances are.

We already know what the broad answer will be on who is creating the imbalances. For example will the US as the great debtor or China as the great creditor respond to any policy prescriptions by the IMF. I think not. We also know what will be the answer to the problem albeit the extent of any change is subject to a deeper discussion.

The G20 also discussed a framework for determining when countries can employ capital controls. This is another hot topic with many emerging markets desiring to have the freedom to use tools to stop hot money from entering or leaving their countries.

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