Wednesday, June 9, 2010

China trade war with Argentina

China is buying more US soybeans because it is in a dispute with Argentina. It has embargoed purchases from Argentina because of anti-dumping duties on its manufactured products. Given the fungible nature of soybeans, this action may not have a significant influence on price; however, it does provide insight on trade strains across countries. Clearly, China will react if there are trade sanctions placed on it by the US Congress.

The China trade balance has moved to $19.5 billion after falling to negative levels in March. Export growth has exploded on the upside after strong declines in 2009. The same has been the case for imports. China is the world's assembler with strong internal growth so import increases should be expected. The growth in the trade surplus has flattened so China will be more sensitive to any change in its ability to sell their good abroad.


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