The link between employment, recession, and Fed tightening is not clear

We would like to see improvement in employment but it is highly variable how long it will take before we see job creation. It could start to happen at the end of the year or the lag could be much longer. There will be an even grater delay in the tightening of Fed policy.

From macroblog.typepad.com: Economic troughs, changes in the employment rate and Fed policy by John Robertson

Historical lag between end of recession, unemployment rate peak, and beginning of funds rate tightening cycle

End of Recession	Unempl. rate peak	Beginning of funds rate tightening cycle	Months from end of recession to unempl. peak	Months from unempl. peak to beginning of funds rate tightening cycle
Nov 2001	Jun 2003	Jul 2004	19	13
Mar 1991	Jun 1992	Feb 1994	15	20
Nov 1982	Dec 1982	Jun 1983	1	6
(Jul 1980)
Mar 1975	May 1975	May 1976	2	12
Nov 1970	Aug 1971*	Mar 1972	9	7

*Following the 1970 recession, the unemployment rate was 6.1 in December 1970 and again in August 1971. If the December 1970 peak is used, months from end of recession to unemployment peak is 1 and months from unemployment peak to beginning of funds rate tightening cycle is 15.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Bureau of Economic Research, and Federal Reserve Board