"Go home there is nothing to see here", the recession is over.

"The recession is very likely over at this point," Bernanke said in responding to questions at the Brookings Institution.

So we are in a new regime. The economic world is now going to be different. We have been seeing a change in the dollar behavior with the long-term downtrend back in play, but it does not feel like the recession is over. But let's be precise. A recession could be over, but that does not mean expansion. We are now in the recovery phase which is the period from the low in economic activity to the point when we are at the previous high in economic activity.

Advanced retail sales was at 2.7% after a revised negative -.2% last month. The value was good, the best since 2006, but the 12 month trend is still negative and the value was inflated from government programs.

So let's not confuse recovery with expansion and there is still a chance for a W-shaped recovery.