The Age of the Unthinkable: Why the New World Disorder Constantly Surprises Us and What We can Do About It by Joshua Ramo is the Black Swan tome for politics. The Black Swan events is that we will constantly be surprised by the totally unexpected. These changes could have radical impact on markets. In this book, Ramo argues that complexity is upon us and that we will be surprised by the what has not be imagined or anticipated.
The book suffers from the problem of other risk books that talk about Black Swans. We will be surprised and change will come from unexpected places. We should be prepared for change and the world is a complex place, but there is no real road map on how to best be prepared for change and surprise. Look for the unexpected, but by definition we will have a hard time finding it. The approaches of the past will not work and simple truisms are not often useful, but we have known this for centuries. Few expected WWI. No one expected the fall of the USSR or the British Empire. It is true that the idea of nation-states as the foundation for change is outmoded, but our ability to explain the behavior of nation-states was always very poor.
Complexity surrounds us. The unthinkable is possible, but our ability to deal with this change is still in a state of flux.
The book suffers from the problem of other risk books that talk about Black Swans. We will be surprised and change will come from unexpected places. We should be prepared for change and the world is a complex place, but there is no real road map on how to best be prepared for change and surprise. Look for the unexpected, but by definition we will have a hard time finding it. The approaches of the past will not work and simple truisms are not often useful, but we have known this for centuries. Few expected WWI. No one expected the fall of the USSR or the British Empire. It is true that the idea of nation-states as the foundation for change is outmoded, but our ability to explain the behavior of nation-states was always very poor.
Complexity surrounds us. The unthinkable is possible, but our ability to deal with this change is still in a state of flux.
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