"Disciplined Systematic Global Macro Views" focuses on current economic and finance issues, changes in market structure and the hedge fund industry as well as how to be a better decision-maker in the global macro investment space.
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Why we make mistakes - once more a look at behavioral biases
Why we make mistakes: How we look without seeing, forget things in seconds, and are all pretty sure we are way above average by Joseph Hallinan is another book about how dumb we are as human beings.
These are a few of the interesting or what may be sad facts Hallinan finds:
In one test, 30 percent of people forgot their password after one week; after three month, at least 65 percent were forgotten.
Only one-third of students hon a short film noticed that the main actor had been changed.
In one study, radiologists missed up to 90 percent of cancerous tumors that, in retrospect, had been visible "for months or even years."
O twenty people tested, only one - avid penny collector - could accurately recall and locate eight critical features of a penny.
A recent poll of three thousand people found that one-fourth of them couldn't remember their own home phone number.
Teams that wear black uniforms have been penalized significantly more than average.
"Almost everyone is overconfident - except the people who are depressed, and they tend to be realists"
Handicappers' accuracy was no better with forty pieces of information than it was with five. But an this is an important but - using more information did increase their confidence.
We are biased creatures who are overconfident in our abilities. We do not want to take advice and we do a poor job of seeing or keeping track of details. Seems like we need to be disciplined in how we make our decisions.
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