Tuesday, July 7, 2009

No V recovery but economics turning

We know employment is usually a lagging indicator. We should be more interested in survey data because if that turns positive employers will start to hire workers. The ISM non-manufacturing survey came out at 47. Still negative but clear improvement since the beginning of the year.

The IMEF manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices in Mexico also showed gains and both have been rising since the beginning of the year. Consumer confidence in Mexico is also off the lows. New Zealand business confidence is also up.

You have to focus on these "animal spirits" because these surveys are some of the best indicators of gains in the global economy.

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