We will have to wait until the second half of the year for the bad economic numbers or that at least that is what economists are telling us. After the advanced estimates for the second quarter GDP numbers showed 1.9% growth, the second quarter growth actually came out with a 3.3% increase beating survey estimates. Where is the recession?
We thought we knew the recession was out there given the real estate and housing numbers, but the rest of the economy has been doing better than expected with exports leading the way. The focus has been on the tax rebate boost, but even accounting for that stimulus growth has been good.
Some of the growth came at the expense of corporate profits which have been hurt by price cutting but the US economy is behaving in a manner not expected. There is growing unemployment, falling confidence, housing fears, financial dislocations, credit cutbacks but positive GDP growth higher than reported for the first quarter.
Equities and the dollar will get a boost but we will have to wait for bad GDP news. Everyone says it is coming. Never bet against a credit crunch, but the slowdown should have been more dramatic.
We thought we knew the recession was out there given the real estate and housing numbers, but the rest of the economy has been doing better than expected with exports leading the way. The focus has been on the tax rebate boost, but even accounting for that stimulus growth has been good.
Some of the growth came at the expense of corporate profits which have been hurt by price cutting but the US economy is behaving in a manner not expected. There is growing unemployment, falling confidence, housing fears, financial dislocations, credit cutbacks but positive GDP growth higher than reported for the first quarter.
Equities and the dollar will get a boost but we will have to wait for bad GDP news. Everyone says it is coming. Never bet against a credit crunch, but the slowdown should have been more dramatic.
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