Thursday, June 19, 2008

Ireland rejects Lisbon Treaty ... no reaction after day one

Markets will often overreact in the short-term to elections and political events when in reality it is the economics that drive markets. That is not to say that politics do not matter, but there are few events that will change the direction of the underlying economics of a country. Change does not happen quickly regardless how much politicians want it.

The Irish rejected the Lisbon Treaty which would have pushed new regulation and governance in the EU. The treaty is a document of over 400 pages which having the populace vote on seems to be absurd. The treaty will clarify the EU presidency, provide for a strong foreign policy chief and a national defense pact. There are also a host of labor and economic issues which will further unify and standardize practices in the EU. Nevertheless, most countries seem to want to maintain their current level of independence even with relegating monetary policy to the ECB.

What is more important is the fact that interest rates will be expected to remain high in the EU and growth is still relatively strong. These issues override the treaty which has been in stalemate for more than 2 years.

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