Saturday, October 24, 2026

The historical great divide in the bond market





I like the following graphic from Exponential Wealth: Centuries of Stock and Bond Returns. It makes clear that we were in two great bond environments: pre-1981 and post-1981. The high-inflation period reversed between 1981 and 2020. The real question is whether we are now in a new third regime. The big fixed-income bet is on what this new regime will be. 
 

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