Tuesday, September 8, 2026

How bad are the bond market returns?

 


Bonds are a bad bet, or have been a bad bet. In fact, the current period has been the worst in the longest history available. It is worse than the period of high inflation in the 1970's, worse than the Civil War. 

However, there is hope. As rates move higher, current yields rise, which offsets some of the capital loss. Coupons provide a cushion for further yield increases. Total returns can improve quickly if overall yields are higher.

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