Hofstadter's Law - applies to macro events

 

Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law. — Douglas Hofstadter

We have written about this, yet it keeps coming up in project management. It can also come up with crises. We may identify the key issues that may cause a crisis, yet it often takes longer to reach the actual event. What has been found with Hofstadter's Law is that while the median time to get a project done is usually within expectations, there are often very long tails beyond what is typically expected.

We know that uncertainty is high and impacts investment and consumer behavior. Still, the manifestation of this uncertainty may take months to show up in asset prices and actual data. Hence, identifying an event and seeing the impact of these expectations may not coincide. Being first when making a forecast is not the same as profiting from a forecast. 

See The planning fallacy and Hofstadter's Law