Sunday, September 17, 2023

Keep it simple with any investment strategy


"It's very common to drown in the details or be attracted to complexity, but what's most important to me is to know what three, four, or five major characteristics of the business that really matter. I see my job primely as asking the right questions and focusing the analysis in order to make a decision." 

1. Valuation - Is this stock seriously undervalued?

2. Balance sheet - Is this stock going bust?

3. Capital discipline - What is the management doing with the cash I'm giving them?

Jean-Marie Eveillard of First Eagle 

Some will refer to the KISS method - "Keep it Simple, Stupid". I would like to say, "Keep it Sophisticatedly Simple".  It is the same thing. Keep the moving parts of the model simple, minimize the features. If you do have use more features, make sure that they can be grouped or categorized into a simple set of market drivers. 

Put differently, can the model be explained to simply to a less sophisticated investor so it will make good intuitive sense. There can be a significant work with data arrangements and analysis, but the core strategy should be driven by just a few simple features.

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